The year 2024 concluded with moderately negative trends for the region. While Kyrgyzstan displayed significant annual growth in consumer confidence, this was not the case in other countries. For Uzbekistan, the past year was clearly not the best, and against the backdrop of improvements in neighboring Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan slipped to the second position in the annual rankings. Tajikistan, though it continues to hold the lead, also ended the last year transitioning to moderately negative trends. In contrast, Kazakhstan experienced a neutral 2024, with consumer confidence remaining virtually unchanged. Nevertheless, the CCI of Central Asian countries still stands above the neutral threshold of 100 points, indicating that positive responses outweigh negative ones.
In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, analysts collect 3,600 questionnaires monthly, while in Kyrgyzstan the number is 1,600 and in Tajikistan, 1,200, proportionate to the population size in the studied countries. The research is based on a methodology used to derive consumer confidence indices in many countries worldwide, adapted for local needs by United Research Technologies Group. The data collection method involves telephone surveys. The survey questionnaire is adapted: the research is conducted in the native language of the respondents.
Kazakhstan
The consumer confidence index in Kazakhstan showed significant recovery in December after a decline in November, reaching 104.8 points, marking the second-highest figure since the survey's inception. Respondent sentiments improved across all five sub-indices. It is noteworthy that throughout 2024, consumer confidence among residents changed little, increasing by only 0.1 points (December 2024 figure compared to December 2023). Overall, Kazakhs became more pessimistic regarding their personal financial situation, but this was offset by improved ratings of conditions for large purchases.
Recovery of forecasts for personal financial situation
The sub-index predicting changes in personal financial status over the next 12 months recovered by 4.5 points, returning to the October level of 132.5 points. The proportion of those who believe their personal financial situation will improve rose from 47.2% in November to 50.8% in December. However, compared to the end of 2023, this figure is noticeably lower. A year ago, the proportion of optimists was 53%.
By age group, the monthly increase in optimism occurred across all demographics. The most noticeable improvement was among youth under 29, where the share of positively inclined respondents rose from 61.3 to 66.5%. This figure is significantly the highest among all age groups. The worst responses came from the older generation aged 60 and above. However, there was also a noted increase in optimism among them: 35.9% of Kazakhs chose positive responses compared to 32.5% in November.
Regionally, the most significant increase in optimism regarding personal financial situation forecasts was observed in Kyzylorda and West Kazakhstan regions, where the share of positive responses rose by 13 and 11 percentage points, respectively. As a result, representatives of the southern region showed the best results in December. The worst responses came from residents of North Kazakhstan, where only 37.6% anticipated an improvement in their personal financial situation over the next 12 months, and this figure decreased by 8.3 percentage points compared to November.
Recovery of conditions for large purchases
The sub-index assessing the favorability of large purchases recovered by 4.1 points compared to November, reaching 74 points. This result is the best in the past four months and exceeded the end-of-2023 figure by 3.3 points. The proportion of Kazakhs who believe current conditions for large purchases are favorable increased from 30% to 31.8%. A year ago, this figure was only 29.3%.
Among age groups, a noticeable increase in optimism was shown only by respondents aged 30–44. The share of positive responses among them rose from 27.8% to 31.8%, marking the second-best result among age groups. The youth under 29 responded best at 38.1%, although this figure is slightly higher than in November. Those aged 60 and above continue to respond the worst, with a result of 26.8%, which, however, is 1.8 percentage points higher than the November figure.
Regionally, the most significant improvement was seen in the West Kazakhstan region, where the share of positive responses rose from 19.7% to 37%. Nevertheless, the leader in December was the Mangystau region with a result of 39.6%, which is significantly higher—by 11%—than in November. Notable monthly improvements were also recorded in Kostanay, Atyrau, and Abai regions, where the increase in the share of optimists ranged from 6 to 8 percentage points. Conversely, the worst results came from respondents in the Zhetysu region, where the proportion of positive responses was only 22.4%, significantly below the national average.
Inflation assessments and expectations showed different dynamics
Inflation assessments among Kazakh residents have shown growth for the second consecutive month. In the past month, 42.6% of respondents (up from 40.9% in November) noted a significant increase in prices. Over the past year, the share of those who noticed rapid price increases rose similarly: from 49.9% in November to 52.4% at the time of the last data collection. However, compared to last year, when inflation was somewhat higher, these figures have fallen by 5-6 percentage points.
Conversely, Kazakh inflation expectations showed a decline, unlike assessments following annual highs in November. The proportion of people expecting a significant price increase over the next month sharply dropped from 30.6% to 24.7%, while for the next 12 months, the share anticipating accelerating price growth decreased from 27.5% in November to 25.6% at the time of the last survey.
A similar study by the National Bank of Kazakhstan regarding inflation assessments and expectations demonstrated a similar trend in assessments, but not in expectations. According to the data presented, the share of those expecting strong price growth over the year sharply increased from 22% to 30.2%. Meanwhile, for the next month, the corresponding figure rose from 27.1% to 32.8%. Both indicators were the highest since December 2022. Inflation assessments also showed a more noticeable increase. If the assessment of price growth over the past month saw the share of respondents increase from 32.4% to 37.8%, then the proportion indicating rapid price growth over the previous 12 months rose from 40.2% to 45%.
Among individual goods and services, most Kazakhs remain concerned about significant price increases for food products. The top four most noticeably increased prices, according to the population, have remained unchanged for the sixteenth consecutive month. They include the categories "Meat and Poultry," "Milk and Dairy Products," "Bread and Bakery Products," and "Vegetables and Fruits." The share of people noticing a significant price increase for all the aforementioned products grew by an average of 1.9 percentage points compared to November, which corresponds to the inflation assessment survey. The most significant increase was seen in the share noting a strong rise in prices for bread and bakery products—rising from 21.1% to 23.6%. However, the strongest growth rates (4-5 percentage points) were recorded for the following products: vegetable oil, flour, and tea with coffee. According to official statistics, bread prices rose in December by only 0.2% month-on-month, while vegetable oil saw a notable increase of 2.9% month-on-month. There was also a significant monthly price increase for coffee—0.8% month-on-month.
Devaluation expectations hit new records
Devaluation expectations among Kazakhs have risen for the third consecutive month, reaching record levels for the entire period of the survey amid a 1.5% increase in the dollar exchange rate over the month and the attainment of new highs. According to the survey results, the share of Kazakhs expecting the tenge to weaken over the next year rose from 60.7% to 64.2%. For the month, this figure increased from 44.9% to 46.1%. It is noteworthy that compared to December 2023, the share of pessimists rose by 12.4 percentage points in the first question and by 15.4 percentage points in the second.
Uzbekistan
The consumer confidence index among Uzbeks showed a slight monthly decline in December, reaching 129.2 points. The decrease occurred across three of the five sub-indices that determine the index. The most significant drop was observed in the sub-index assessing the favorability of current conditions for large purchases, while forecasts regarding the economic situation saw significant improvement. The year 2024 concluded negatively for Uzbekistan: the CCI for the year decreased by 6.1 points, with noticeable declines occurring in almost all sub-indices.
Conditions for large purchases deteriorate for the second consecutive month
In December, the sub-index assessing the favorability of current conditions for large purchases dropped from 84.2 to 79.5 points. This marked the worst result since the survey began. Over the year, the figure decreased by