According to new data, inflation is expected to be between 6.5% and 8.5% in 2025, and between 5.5% and 7.5% in 2026. The financial regulator anticipates a stable portion of inflation to be around 5% by 2026.
The National Bank notes that the revision of forecasts is due to increased fiscal stimulus, ongoing reforms in the housing and utilities sector, the depreciation of the tenge, and rising external inflationary pressures.
Significant risks are associated with rising domestic demand, accelerating external inflation, and high inflation expectations. Additionally, uncertainty remains regarding the stabilization of public finances. The liberalization of regulated prices and tariffs, along with its pace and timing, are also important risk factors.
Yearly inflation in Kazakhstan reached 8.5% in October. This was influenced by the rising cost of regulated services, driven by the "Tariff in Exchange for Investments" program, the weakening tenge, and the increase in prices for non-food goods and market services due to high domestic demand. Despite a decrease in inflation expectations among the population in October, they remain unstable, continuing to create uncertainty for the economy.