The market overview has been prepared by analysts from the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK).
Currency Market In the initial trading sessions of 2025, the national currency faced pressure from sellers, likely reacting to news regarding the decrease in foreign currency sales from the National Fund in January and negative inflation data from the past year. The weighted average exchange rate of USDKZT at the end of Sunday’s trading rose to 526.30 tenge per dollar (+1.20 tenge). The trading volume remained low at 119.5 million dollars (-80.5 million), largely due to the low activity of players following the extended holidays in the country. Meanwhile, the conversion volumes of transfers from the National Fund in January are expected to decrease to 750-850 million dollars (900 in December), while the total for 2024 reached a record 10.2 billion dollars (9.5 billion dollars in 2023). Despite the announcement of a halt in currency interventions, their volume in December was 308 million dollars (1.0 billion dollars in November). At the same time, inflation for 2024 was 8.6% (9.8% in 2023), significantly exceeding the target of 5%.
Table 1. Operations of the National Bank of Kazakhstan on the domestic currency market:
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan, calculations by AFK
Money Market Money market rates remain consistently close to the lower boundary of the base rate corridor (TONIA – at 14.43%, SWAP – 7.12%). Additionally, the trading volume was low, totaling only 535.4 billion tenge. Meanwhile, the open net position for the National Bank's operations is approximately 7.4 trillion tenge.
Stock Market The KASE index opened the first trading session of the current year with a noticeable increase – reaching 5,640.2 points (+1.1%). This growth was primarily driven by shares of banking sector representatives – Halyk Bank (+5.3%) and BCC (+1.1%). It is worth noting that risk appetite in the local market during the first half of the year is supported by expectations of dividend payments from the previous year.
Oil Brent crude oil prices are holding steady at a high of 76.4 dollars per barrel (-0.4%) in today’s Asian trading. Key factors influencing this movement include the relatively cold winter in Europe and the USA (increasing raw material consumption), expectations of significant fiscal stimulus for the Chinese economy, and relatively stable global economic growth this year.
Risk Assets Futures on major US stock indices are currently fluctuating around zero, as there are no clear factors for buying/selling and investor activity remains low after the holiday weekend. This week, investors are awaiting reports on employment in the USA, data on job openings, and unemployment claims, among others.
Safe-Haven Assets There is also low volatility in risk-free instruments. Key events for the market this month may include macroeconomic data releases from the USA, EU, and China, changes in the geopolitical landscape, and specific political events.