Foreign Exchange Market
The USD/KZT exchange rate continued to decline on Thursday, reaching 524.9 tenge per dollar (-2.24 tenge). Trading activity increased, with the transaction volume hitting 235.7 million dollars (+44.1 million). The tenge received support from rising oil prices, an improved trade balance, significant volumes of conversion of transfers from the National Fund, and the National Bank's readiness to conduct currency interventions.
Money Market
Interest rates in the money market rose: the weighted average overnight repo rate reached 14.68% per annum (+37 b.p.), and currency swap rates increased to 11.26% (+148 b.p.). Trading activity decreased to 717.9 billion tenge (down from 820.7 billion the previous day). Strong demand for deposits at the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NBRK) remained: the liquidity withdrawal amounted to 2 trillion tenge, while the open position of the NBRK is maintained at approximately 7.4 trillion tenge.
Stock Market
The KASE index rose by 0.3%, reaching 5,728.29 points. Key drivers included shares of BCK (+2.3%), Kazakhtelecom (+1.9%), and KMG (+1.1%). The decline in the share prices of Air Astana (-1.1%) and Kcell (-1.0%) limited growth. In the bond market, the KFU placed one-year bonds worth 1.5 billion tenge with a yield of 14.94% per annum.
Oil
Brent prices increased by 1.4%, reaching 77.2 dollars per barrel, compensating for previous declines. The market accounted for a potential increase in demand amid colder weather in the USA and Europe, as well as risks of supply disruptions due to weather conditions. Additional support comes from expectations of new US sanctions against the Russian oil sector.
Risky Assets
On Thursday, US stock markets were closed due to a national day of mourning for Jimmy Carter. Today, investors are focused on the employment report in the US, which may influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rates.
Safe-Haven Assets
Amid the lack of significant events, gold rose by 0.2%, while the US dollar index increased by 0.1% due to expectations of a continued tight monetary policy.