Additionally, the expert explains the correlation between the national currency and the ruble through a simple fact — the large volume of trade turnover and mutual trade.
According to him, this relationship is neither linear nor symmetrical.
“The exchange rate of the tenge is primarily influenced by fundamental external factors such as fluctuations in oil prices and the US dollar index, as well as internal factors — the schedule for selling currency for transfers from the National Fund to the budget, restrictions and obligations imposed on the currency market (exporters selling 50% of their foreign currency earnings), and the volume of currency assets purchased for the National Fund. Therefore, the current strengthening of the ruble is due to the existence of this correlation; however, it is not the strongest or most stable and does not have a relevant impact on the dollar-to-tenge exchange rate,” noted Qabzhalyalova.
In the fall of 2024, attention was drawn to the "much clearer and sharper movement" of the USD/KZT pair for USD/RUB
Furthermore, the expert highlighted the "much clearer and sharper movement" of the USD/KZT pair for USD/RUB in the fall of 2024. Until now, attention has only been focused on forecasts surrounding the ruble.
“Currently, the influence of psychological factors has significantly weakened, and market participants will not react as they did last fall,” believes a representative of Halyk Finance.
He described the USD/KZT exchange rate as balanced and market-driven.
Moreover, Halyk Finance expects the national currency to adhere to fundamental factors, and under stable conditions, there will not be a significant increase from the current levels.
Overall, analysts at the financial company predict that in the coming month, the USD/KZT pair will range between 500-510 tenge per $1.
It is worth noting that according to trading results on KASE, at 15:30, the average exchange rate of the dollar against the tenge was 498.69 tenge per $1.