Last week, Bitcoin experienced a slight correction amid anticipation of the results of the U.S. presidential election, reports a correspondent from the Kapital.kz business information center. Donald Trump is already being congratulated by leaders from other countries on his victory. Official election results from all states may only be announced in a few days.
Bernstein experts suggested that if Donald Trump is elected as President of the United States, Bitcoin could surpass its historical high and reach between $80,000 and $90,000, whereas Kamala Harris's victory could lead to a price drop to $50,000. They believe that under favorable circumstances, the leading cryptocurrency could approach this target by the inauguration on January 20, 2025. In September, experts had already provided similar forecasts, but at that time, a victory for Kamala Harris was expected to result in a more significant decline — down to $30,000 to $40,000. "The Bitcoin genie is out of the bottle, and it’s difficult to reverse this process. Our target price for the leading cryptocurrency by the end of 2025 remains at $200,000, regardless of the election outcome," Bernstein noted. Experts warned about potential short-term volatility related to the election results.
According to SoSoValue, ahead of the voting, investors withdrew $541 million from Bitcoin ETFs, marking the second-largest outflow after a record $561 million recorded on May 2, 2024. This negative trend continued for two consecutive days, coinciding with a reduction in Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris. At that time, the probability of the Republican's victory dropped to 61% from 66% a week earlier. This was accompanied by a pullback in Bitcoin and its main competitors, clearly indicating that the market believes in Donald Trump. Overall, in October, Bitcoin's price increased by approximately 14%. However, in November, prices began to correct, although traders remained confident in the continuation of the upward trend. On October 29, Bitcoin reached $73,620 on the Binance exchange, nearing the historical high from March. But at the beginning of the third month of autumn, the price began to decline, potentially threatening to break below $69,000. Despite this, experts noted an abnormal demand for Bitcoin from over-the-counter market clients. "Institutions are buying absolutely absurd amounts of Bitcoin through OTC," said crypto trader Alex Becker. Although some investors, like Mike Alfred, were skeptical of these claims, he stated: "When they have enough funds, they will make the media explode with news of a new historical high for Bitcoin. Retail investors will rush to Coinbase, where there will be no inventory left. The price will skyrocket. This is planned." In summary, it can be concluded that October confirmed its nickname "Uptober," historically characterized by Bitcoin's growth after a traditionally weak September. However, the current growth fell short of the figures from 2023 and 2021 — 23.6% and 27.5% respectively. Despite the increase in stablecoin supply, this factor was insufficient for a significant rise in Bitcoin's price, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He pointed out that today, stablecoins are primarily used for transfers or value preservation in countries with rapidly depreciating fiat currencies, rather than for trading. "Only 21% of the total supply of stablecoins is held on exchanges for trading purposes, while in 2021, this figure exceeded 50%," he emphasized, highlighting the trend shift in the current market cycle.
In October, CryptoQuant analysts concluded that the increase in stablecoin capitalization in August-September could extend the upward trend of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies. At that time, stablecoins were referred to as the "lifeblood" of the digital asset market. Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, reported a net profit of $2.5 billion for the third quarter and $7.7 billion since the beginning of the year. The financial results were confirmed by auditor BDO. Tether stated that the group's equity reached $14.7 billion, and the consolidated asset volume hit a historical high of $134.4 billion. By the end of September, reserves backing USDT amounted to $125.47 billion, of which $102.5 billion were U.S. Treasury bonds. "The company has become the 18th largest holder of U.S. government debt, surpassing Germany, Australia, and the UAE," noted Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. A significant portion of the reserves also consisted of gold, whose price increase in the third quarter yielded $1.1 billion in "paper" profits, comparable to bond income of $1.3 billion. The issuance of USDT at the end of the reporting period amounted to approximately 119.4 billion coins, indicating a backing reserve of about $6 billion. The allocated capital of Tether Investments reached $7.7 billion, including an additional acquisition of 7,100 BTC during the quarter. "These strategic investments cover key sectors such as renewable energy, Bitcoin mining, artificial intelligence, telecommunications, and education," the company explained.
Regarding the rest of the market, crypto analyst and ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen stated that the "great finale" of altcoins is approaching its conclusion, and the segment should expect a correction before a sharp rebound. "The main consolidation period will end by December or the second week of January 2025," he noted. "It has been a long journey, and many have given up, but the process always comes to an end," the expert added. Benjamin Cowen's forecast is based on historical data: in 2019, altcoins crashed, in 2020 they gradually recovered, and in 2021, an altseason began with new highs. He emphasized that altcoin pairs with Bitcoin have been declining for the third consecutive year, and the last two altseasons occurred during post-halving periods — 2017 and 2021. "I’m sure the gurus will laugh, as always, but their forecasts for altcoin seasons have not materialized for three consecutive years," concluded Benjamin Cowen.
Researchers at The Block released data showing growth in network metrics for stablecoins and the two largest cryptocurrencies. In October, the adjusted volume of on-chain value transferred in the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks grew by 28.1%, reaching $420 billion. The Bitcoin metric increased by 32.1%, while Ethereum's grew by 20.9%. The adjusted transaction volume of the largest stablecoins rose by 8% in October, reaching $899 billion. The share of USDT in this segment was 79.5%, while USDC accounted for 16.9%. Total miner revenue for the month increased by 25.4%, reaching $1.02 billion.
Over the past seven-day reporting period, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market showed a slight correction amid Bitcoin's growth. As of the evening of Wednesday, November 6, 2024, it amounted to $2.32 trillion, which is 5.17% lower than the values recorded at the end of the previous reporting period.
1. Bitcoin (BTC). As of the evening of Wednesday, November 6, 2024, the price of Bitcoin was $74,756, reflecting a 3.26% increase over the past seven days. Bitcoin once again demonstrated a strong consolidation of its market position, despite some instability in previous weeks. Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 0.8 percentage points, reaching 59.5%. The total market capitalization of BTC reached $1.478 trillion, further evidencing its leading role in the growth of the cryptocurrency market.
2. Ethereum (ETH). As of the evening of Wednesday, November 6, 2024, the price of Ethereum (ETH) was $2,599, showing a 2.35% decrease over the past seven days. Despite the price drop, ETH remains one of the major players in the cryptocurrency market, with its share of the total capitalization falling by 0.51 percentage points to 12.62%. This decline indicates temporary challenges faced by "Ether," in contrast to the market leader Bitcoin.
3. Binance Coin (BNB). As of the evening of Wednesday, November 6, 2024, the price of Binance Coin (BNB) was $595, reflecting a 1.18% decrease over the past seven days. BNB's share of the total capitalization fell by 0.04 percentage points to 3.56%. Despite this minor decline, Binance Coin continues to maintain a stable position in the cryptocurrency market.
4. Solana (SOL). As of the evening of Wednesday, November 6, 2024, the price of Solana (SOL) was $185, showing a 3.24% increase over the past seven days. Solana has strengthened its position amid